Topical geopolitical round-up. Currently including Ukraine; The inflation ghost; The pros and cons of the looming recession reset; Why the UK, believe it or not, is presently a European frontrunner on the transition period development curve (even though it is going to get worse before it gets better); Why the chaos also in the US involves a typically much underestimated trial-and-error element; and why the US is yet again set to become ever more important as the leader of the free world; Why the prospects of China are often overplayed for much the same reasons the prospects of India are often underestimated; How to react but not overreact during a time when investors, for obvious reasons, are turning towards safe havens of all sorts.
Today’s six key development trends – technological, commercial and socio-economic – that have triggered today’s ongoing power shifts and equilibrium reset. Trends which explain why we are experiencing the first establishment-versus-the-people divide since the democratic breakthrough. Trends which to a massive degree explain the political and economic similarities and differences between both countries as well as American states.
The real or not so real links between making money and sustainable growth. Why our attitude towards sustainable growth is not only more refined than ever – but can be expected to be yet more refined moving forward. Especially if and when acknowledged the trial-and-error element involved.
The banality of Putin and why the long-term prospects of a more democratic Russia are actually improving rather than deteriorating. Not despite but partly due to the current Kreml backwardness.
The Nordics, why the Nordic model for international co-operation by far beats the EU co-operation model, the immediate punishment dished out to Sweden when over recent years abandoning its traditionally balanced ways as well as how the Finnish-Swedish NATO memberships really affect Baltic Sea security.
How to genuinely understand Centrism and its two key varieties: Authentic Centrism (balances key thoughts and has no problem taking on board also right-wing and left-wing thoughts as long as these thoughts are good) and Centrism In Name Only (Centrism that uses moralism to simply cancel all non-Centrist thoughts). Why the latter, CINO, was bound to produce an anti-thesis like Trumpism. How this has left authentically moderate voters, in country after country, betrayed by not only one but both key camps. How this dilemma is, for those willing to see, rectified by democracy reasserting itself.
Why de facto radical political experiments like the EU experiment (a textbook example of a CINO project) are doomed to fail regardless of all the stakeholders paid to insist otherwise. Why years of protracted political and economic agony can be avoided, in the increasingly sclerotic eurozone, if replacing the EU with EEC version 2.0. Why the prospects of the latter eventually happening – and voter intent finally realised – are a lot higher than held by received wisdom. How the fight surrounding the EU is, ultimately, little more than a modern variety of the centuries old fight between the hustle and bustle of real democracy (always labeled “mob rule” by power centralisers) and the (pretend) stability, shine and glory offered by “philosopher kings”.
The analytically fascinating Brexit story – a story intriguingly alternating between high-level Greek drama and soap opera – cleansed from both Brussels and London PR-spin.
The “Shakespearean” rise and fall of Boris Johnsonand rise of Liz Truss, a story also cleansed from PR spin of all sorts. Including a round-up of the key factions – often much misunderstood – within both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party.
The fundamental lesson we keep forgetting that means it always pays off to place the long-term economic bets on the world’s politically most grassroots oriented countries. Countries like the US, UK, Canada, Australia, Switzerland and the Nordic countries. Why the vast number of claims made by people paid to say otherwise really should be dismissed as noise. Why the hustle and bustle of real democracy is a sign of society vigour and the (pretend) calm offered by “philosopher kings” a foolproof indicator of decline.
Why tribal camps of all sorts are always, almost per definition, predictably wrong. How these camps still tend to dominate the airwaves despite often outrageously misrepresenting the only consistently moderate force in today’s decidedly middle class (Centrist) society: the electorate. What to do if really interested in bridging divides and healing society.
Why we really do not need to be so gloomy about the future. As long as we do not forget to champion authentic rather than pretend democracy as well as authentic rather than pretend market orientation.